目的：在气候变化和人类活动影响下，玛纳斯河流域不同水体转化过程发生变化，变化环境下流域尺度水循环过程有待深入研究，采用稳定同位素方法探索流域不同水体转化关系，并提出区域水资源可持续利用的措施，为流域尺度水资源可持续利用提供基础支撑。

方法：本研究于2022年4月至2023年9月在玛纳斯河流域开展样品采集工作，采集大气降水、地表水、土壤水、地下水和植物水的试验样品，利用后向轨迹模型、贝叶斯混合模型，分析不同水体氢氧稳定同位素的时空差异和影响因素，定性和定量分析不同水体的转化关系。

结果：（1）玛纳斯河流域内不同水体氢氧稳定同位素组成时空差异显著。时间变化上，大气降水稳定同位素呈冬季贫化夏季富集的趋势，地表水和芦苇水稳定同位素呈“贫化—富集—贫化”的趋势，土壤水稳定同位素呈逐渐富集的趋势，多枝柽柳水稳定同位素呈逐渐贫化的趋势。空间变化上，大气降水稳定同位素呈绿洲富集，山区和荒漠区贫化的趋势，地下水稳定同位素呈现从山区至荒漠区逐渐贫化的趋势，地表水、土壤水和植物水稳定同位素呈现山区至荒漠区逐渐富集的趋势。

（2）流域内不同水体氢氧稳定同位素主要影响因素具有差异性。气温是影响大气降水、土壤水和地下水同位素变化主要的影响因素，对应的标准化系数分别为0.901、−0.247和1.486。地表水则主要受到地表水水温的影响，标准化系数为0.743。

（3）流域内冬季降水主要是受海洋水汽的影响，夏季降水则受到大陆气团和局地再循环水汽控制，流域内水汽主要来源于局地再循环水汽和大西洋水汽，贡献率分别为49.25%和47.21%。两种植物发生了同位素偏移。山区芦苇主要利用浅层土壤水，利用率为31.6%，绿洲区和荒漠区芦苇主要利用地下水，分别为33.9%和27.8%。山区多枝柽柳主要吸收利用地下水，利用率为28.6%，绿洲区和荒漠区则主要利用地下水，利用率分别为34.4%和39.6%。

（4）利用MixSIAR模型量化了流域内不同水体的转化关系。山区地下水和地表水转化频繁，相互转化比例均在85.0%左右。山区土壤水主要受到地表水的补给，平均补给率为38.0%。绿洲区地表水主要受到山区地表水补给，补给率均值为41.8%。绿洲区地下水主要受到山区地下水的补给，补给率均值为49.3%。荒漠区地表水受绿洲区地表水补给的比例为68.0%，地下水受绿洲区地下水补给的比例为80.2%。荒漠区土壤水主要受到地表水的补给，补给率为36.2%。

结论：玛纳斯河流域大气水汽主要来源于局地再循环水汽和西风水汽；山区和绿洲区地表水与地下水转化频繁，土壤水受到降水、地表水和地下水的均匀补给，植物水分来源具有时空差异性，分析了流域不同水体的转化关系。基于此提出了玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用措施。研究结果可为玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用提供科学依据。

Objective: Climate change and human activities have led to changes in the transformation processes of different water bodies within a watershed. More research is needed to understand basin-scale water cycles under changing environments. The transformation of different water bodies in the basin was studied using stable isotope methods. Sustainable utilization measures for regional water resources are proposed to provide the necessary support for sustainable utilization of basin-scale water resources.

Methods: Sample collection was conducted in the Manas River Basin from April 2022 to September 2023. The experimental samples collected during this period included precipitation, surface water, soil water, groundwater, and plant water samples. The spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes in different water bodies were analyzed using backward trajectory and Bayesian mixed models. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transformation relationship between different water bodies.

Results: (1) There were significant spatiotemporal differences in the stable isotopic compositions of hydrogen and oxygen in different water bodies within the Manas River Basin. The stable isotopes of precipitation showed a trend of depletion in winter and enrichment in summer. With regard to temporal fluctuations, the isotopes of surface water, and reed stem water exhibit a pattern of “depletion-enrichment-depletion,” while the isotopes of soil water demonstrate a trend of enrichment. The isotopes of stem water of the multi-branched T. ramosissima show a trend of depletion. In terms of spatial variations, the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in precipitation revealed a trend of enrichment in oases and impoverishment in mountainous and desert regions. The stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in groundwater exhibit a trend of gradual impoverishment from mountainous regions to desert areas, while the isotopes of surface water, soil water, and plant water show a pattern of enrichment from mountainous to desert regions in the opposite direction of groundwater isotopes.

(2) The main factors influencing the stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in different water bodies within the basin varied. Temperature was the main factor influencing isotopic changes in precipitation, soil water, and groundwater, with corresponding standardized coefficients of 0.901, -0.247, and 1.486, respectively. The surface water was mainly affected by the temperature of the surface water, with a standardized coefficient of 0.743.

(3) Winter precipitation in the basin is mainly influenced by ocean water vapor, whereas summer precipitation is controlled by continental air masses and local recirculating water vapor. Water vapor in the basin mainly originates from local recirculating water vapor and Atlantic water vapor, with contribution rates of 49.25% and 47.21%, respectively. Two types of plants, reed and multibranched T. ramosissimas, have undergone isotopic shifts. Reed in mountainous areas mainly utilizes shallow soil water, with a utilization rate of 31.6%, while Reed in oasis and desert areas mainly utilizes groundwater, with a utilization rate of 33.9% and 27.8%, respectively. In contrast, the multi branched T. ramosissima in mountainous areas mainly absorbs and utilizes groundwater, with a utilization rate of 28.6%, while in oasis and desert areas, groundwater is primary source of water, with utilization rates of 34.4% and 39.6%, respectively.

(4) The MixSIAR model was employed to quantify the transformation relationship between the different water bodies in the basin. In mountainous areas, the conversion of groundwater to surface water is frequent, with a mutual conversion ratio of approximately 85.0%. Soil water in mountainous areas is mainly replenished by surface water, with an average replenishment rate of 38.0%. Surface water in oasis areas was mainly replenished by surface water from mountainous areas, with an average replenishment rate of 41.8%. Groundwater in oasis areas is mainly replenished by groundwater in mountainous areas, with an average replenishment rate of 49.3%. The proportion of surface water in desert areas replenished by surface water in oasis areas was 68.0% and the proportion of groundwater replenished by groundwater from oasis areas was 80.2%. Soil water in desert areas is mainly replenished by surface water, with a replenishment rate of 36.2%.

Conclusion: The primary sources of water vapor in the Manas River Basin are locally recycled water vapor and westerly water vapor. In mountainous and oasis areas, the conversion of surface water to groundwater is frequent, and soil water is uniformly replenished by precipitation, surface water, and groundwater. The source of plant water exhibits spatiotemporal differences, and this study analyzed the transformation relationship between different water bodies in the basin. Based on these findings, suggestions for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the Manas River Basin have been put forth. These results serve as a scientific foundation for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the Manas River Basin.

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