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中文题名:

 数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的影响研究    

姓名:

 赵丽玉    

学号:

 20212316307    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 020205    

学科名称:

 经济学 - 应用经济学 - 产业经济学    

学生类型:

 博士    

学位:

 经济学博士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2025    

学校:

 石河子大学    

院系:

 经济与管理学院    

专业:

 应用经济学    

研究方向:

 产业经济    

第一导师姓名:

 龚新蜀    

第一导师单位:

 石河子大学    

完成日期:

 2025-11-30    

答辩日期:

 2025-11-22    

外文题名:

 Research on the Influence of Digital Economy on Urban-Rural Income Gap in Xinjiang    

中文关键词:

 数字经济 ; 新疆 ; 城乡收入差距 ; 数字鸿沟 ; 空间溢出     

外文关键词:

 Digital economy ; Xinjiang ; Urban-rural income gap ; Digital divide ; Spatial spillover effect     

中文摘要:

城乡收入差距是长期困扰发展中国家乃至部分发达国家的深层次结构性难题。随着数字经济的全球性崛起,技术范式与制度结构正经历深刻重构,为破解城乡收入鸿沟提供了前所未有的历史契机。在我国,脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴战略虽已推动城乡收入差距整体收窄,但制约其持续缩小的结构性矛盾依然突出。数字经济以其广泛的渗透性与协同效应,正从多维度突破农村经济发展的传统约束,为促进城乡要素流动与城乡融合发展注入新动能,日益成为推动城乡收入差距收敛的关键引擎。新疆作为“一带一路”核心区与中巴、中亚经济走廊的重要枢纽,其城乡收入均衡增长不仅关系到区域内部民生改善,更牵动国家全局战略的实施成效。缩小新疆城乡收入差距具有超越一般经济意义的战略重要性,直接关系到边疆稳固、民族团结与周边经济走廊的协同推进,是一项兼具政治意义与发展使命的重大任务。而数字经济的蓬勃发展为新疆破解城乡二元结构、促进资源跨区域高效配置、激活农村内生动力开辟了新路径,通过弥合城乡数字鸿沟,不仅能够开辟增收新渠道、构建城乡融合的发展新格局,更为实现新疆城乡收入差距的实质性缩小注入持续动能。

本研究以技术-经济范式、网络效应理论与长尾理论、二元经济结构理论以及收入分配理论为基础,遵循“提出问题—理论探讨—梳理现状—实证验证—对策建议”这一主线的研究思路,层层递进、逐步深入地展开研究。首先,在分析数字经济与城乡收入差距相关理论的基础上,搭建了数字经济影响城乡收入差距的数理模型,从理论层面系统探讨数字经济对城乡收入差距的总体效应、结构效应和时序效应,并从非农就业、技术创新与城镇化深入剖析其内在影响机制,进一步从空间集聚与空间溢出效应探析数字经济影响城乡收入差距的空间效应。其次,通过指标体系法、泰尔指数法,科学测度了新疆数字经济发展指数和城乡收入差距,并运用ArcGis时空分析法、Dagum基尼系数法、Kernel核密度估计法,探究了数字经济、城乡收入差距的时空演进规律、区域差异以及差异来源。再次,基于2014-2022年新疆88个县(市、区)的面板数据,运用固定效应模型实证检验了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的影响效应及影响机制。此外,采用空间计量模型,进一步检验了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的空间溢出效应。最后,从总体和分区域两个层面提出了数字经济缩小新疆城乡收入差距的对策建议。本文主要结论如下:

(1)新疆数字经济发展迅速,但区域不平衡现象显著。第一,新疆数字经济总体指数随时间推移呈稳步上升态势,其空间格局由早期“单极驱动、离散分布”逐渐演变为“多极联动、集群发展”的特征;第二,新疆数字经济分维度指数整体实现稳步增长。据Kernel核密度估计显示,数字经济各维度主峰高度分布逐步右移,且右移显著,表明新疆数字经济各维度实现稳步增长。各维度主峰高度趋于变宽,表明数字经济各维度指数内部差距较为突出,且数字金融和数字治理多极或两极分化现象较为突出;第三,新疆数字经济发展存在明显的区域不平衡。从南北疆来看,整体呈“北疆领先、南疆加速追赶”的格局。各地州数字经济发展指数逐步提升,但数字经济发展水平梯度分化显著,超变密度是梯队分化的主要来源。各县域数字经济指数整体稳步增长,但县域数字经济发展不平衡现象较为突出。

(2)新疆城乡收入差距逐步收敛,但存在显著的区域差异。第一,新疆城乡收入差距随时间推移呈稳步收敛态势,其空间格局呈现由“连片高值集聚”逐渐演变为“散点式分布”的特征;第二,新疆城乡收入差距存在明显的区域差异特征。从南北疆来看,城乡收入差距始终呈现“南高北低”的特点,组间系数和组内系数是造成区域城乡收入差异的主要来源。各地州城乡收入差距整体呈下降态势,地州间城乡收入差距梯度分化明显,组间系数是造成梯度分化的主要来源。县域城乡收入差距整体有所收敛,但县域间城乡收入差距明显,部分县域城乡内部差距更为突出。

(3)运用新疆88个县(市、区)面板数据,构建固定效应模型,实证检验了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的影响效应。结果表明,数字经济有效缩小新疆城乡收入差距,并存在显著的总体效应、结构效应及时序效应。同时,数字经济的“红利效应”会随着数字经济强度、收入水平、南北疆、十四地州的差异以及是否为边境县而发生变化。第一,数字经济能有效释放“数字红利”,显著缩小新疆城乡收入差距。第二,数字经济各维度对新疆城乡收入差距的影响具有结构层次性特征,其中数字基础设施对新疆城乡收入差距的影响效应最强,数字金融次之,数字治理再次,数字相关产业的影响效应最弱。第三,数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距具有显著的时序效应,并呈现动态特征。数字经济前期有效释放“数字红利”,缩小新疆城乡收入差距,并呈现“缩小效应快速提升—缩小效应稳步提升—缩小效应下降”的动态趋势,后期招致“数字鸿沟”,导致城乡收入差距趋于扩张。第四,基于数字经济强度、不同收入水平、南北疆、十四地州和是否为边境县等方面验证了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的异质性影响。具体地,数字经济对新疆数字经济高强度区域城乡收入差距的缩小效果更强,对数字经济低强度区域的影响则较弱;数字经济对新疆高收入水平区域城乡收入差距的缩小效果更强,对低收入水平区域的影响则较弱;数字经济对南疆城乡收入差距的缩小效果强于北疆;数字经济对博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、乌鲁木齐市、阿勒泰地区、喀什地区以及巴音郭楞蒙古自治州和伊犁哈萨克自治州等地州城乡收入差距存在显著影响,对其余地州的影响则不显著;数字经济有效释放边境县“数字红利”,显著缩小边境县城乡收入差距,对非边境县的影响则尚不明显。

(4)运用新疆88个县(市、区)面板数据,构建中介效应模型,实证检验了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的影响机制。结果表明,非农就业、技术创新和城镇化在数字经济影响新疆城乡收入差距过程中存在显著的机制作用,但机制效果存在区域差异性。第一,数字经济通过促进非农就业、推动技术创新和推进城镇化来缩小新疆城乡收入差距。首先,非农就业的中介效应值为-0.0065,数字经济通过促进非农就业,进而助力城乡收入差距收敛。其次,技术创新的中介效应值为-0.0115,数字经济通过推动技术创新,进而缩小城乡收入差距。最后,城镇化的中介效应值为-0.0069,数字经济依托城镇化机制作用进一步弥合城乡收入差距。第二,非农就业、技术创新和城镇化在数字经济影响城乡收入差距过程中的机制效果存在区域异质性。首先,非农就业的机制影响存在区域异质性,北疆非农就业的中介效应要强于南疆,表明数字经济通过非农就业,更显著缩小北疆城乡收入差距,而南疆非农就业的中介效应尚未充分显现。其次,技术创新的机制影响存在区域异质性,南疆技术创新的中介效应比北疆更为明显,表明数字经济通过技术创新机制更显著缩小南疆城乡收入差距,而北疆技术创新机制的边际效应相对较小,技术创新的机制影响相对较弱。最后,城镇化的机制影响存在区域异质性,南疆城镇化的中介效应较为显著,北疆城镇化的中介效应未通过显著检验,表明数字经济通过城镇化机制,更显著缩小南疆城乡收入差距,而北疆城镇化的边际发展空间受限,城镇化的中介效应不明显。

(5)运用新疆88个县(市、区)面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型,实证检验了数字经济对新疆城乡收入差距的空间溢出效应。结果表明,新疆数字经济不仅能够缩小本地县域城乡收入差距,还能够通过空间溢出效应显著缩小周边县域城乡收入差距。第一,新疆城乡收入差距存在显著的正向空间集聚特征,并呈现“高-高(H-H)”“低-低(L-L)”集聚特征,而新疆数字经济的正向空间集聚效应逐渐减弱。第二,新疆数字经济通过空间溢出效应显著缩小周边县域城乡收入差距。此外,在排除特殊事项干扰、替换被解释变量和核心解释变量测度方法后,空间溢出效应检验结果依然显著且稳定。第三,数字经济对缩小南北疆城乡收入差距均表现出显著的空间溢出效应,但存在明显的空间异质性。总的来看,数字经济对南北疆城乡收入差距均表现出显著的空间溢出效应,在缩小本地县域城乡收入差距的同时也缩小周边县域城乡收入差距,但南疆地区数字经济的空间溢出效应比北疆地区更为明显。

外文摘要:

The income gap between urban and rural areas is a deep-seated structural problem that has long plagued developing countries and even some developed countries. With the global rise of the digital economy, technological paradigms and institutional structures are undergoing profound reconstructions, providing an unprecedented historical opportunity to bridge the income gap between urban and rural areas. In China, although poverty alleviation and the rural revitalization strategy have led to an overall narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas, the structural contradictions that restrict its continuous reduction remain prominent. With its extensive penetration and synergy, the digital economy is breaking through the traditional constraints on rural economic development from multiple dimensions, injecting new impetus into promoting the flow of urban and rural factors and the integrated development of urban and rural areas, and increasingly becoming a key engine for narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. As the core area of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and an important hub of the China-Pakistan and China-Central Asia Economic Corridors, the balanced growth of urban and rural income in Xinjiang not only affects the improvement of people's livelihood within the region, but also influences the implementation effectiveness of the country's overall strategy. Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang has strategic significance beyond ordinary economic significance. It is directly related to the stability of the border areas, ethnic unity and the coordinated advancement of the surrounding economic corridors. It is a major task with both political significance and development mission. The vigorous development of the digital economy has opened up a new path for Xinjiang to break the urban-rural dual structure, promote efficient cross-regional resource allocation, and activate the internal driving force of rural areas. By bridging the digital divide between urban and rural areas, it not only opens up new channels for increasing income and builds a new development pattern of urban-rural integration, but also injects continuous impetus into the substantive narrowing of the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang.

This study is based on the technological-economic paradigm, network effect theory, long-tail theory, dual economic structure theory, and income distribution theory. It follows the research approach of "posing the problem- theoretical exploration - reviewing the current situation - empirical verification - countermeasures and suggestions", and proceeds step by step and in depth. Firstly, based on the analysis of the theories related to the digital economy and the income gap between urban and rural areas, a mathematical model of the impact of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas is established. It systematically explores the overall effect, structural effect, and temporal effect of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas from a theoretical perspective, and further analyzes the internal influence mechanism from the aspects of non-agricultural employment, technological innovation, and urbanization. It also explores the spatial effect of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas from the perspectives of spatial agglomeration and spatial spillover effects. Secondly, through the index system method and Theil index method, the development index of the digital economy and the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang are scientifically measured. ArcGis spatio-temporal analysis method, Dagum Gini coefficient method, and Kernel density estimation method are used to explore the spatio-temporal evolution patterns, regional differences, and sources of differences of the digital economy and the income gap between urban and rural areas. Thirdly, based on the panel data of 88 counties (cities, districts) in Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, the fixed effect model is used to empirically test the impact effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. In addition, the spatial econometric model is used to further test the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions for narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang through the digital economy are proposed from both the overall and regional levels. The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:

(1) The digital economy in Xinjiang is developing rapidly, but the regional imbalance is significant. First, the overall index of Xinjiang's digital economy has shown a steady upward trend over time. Its spatial pattern has gradually evolved from the early "unipolar drive and discrete distribution" to the characteristics of "multi-polar linkage and cluster development". Second, the overall multi-dimensional index of Xinjiang's digital economy has achieved steady growth. According to the Kernel density estimation, the height distribution of the main peaks in each dimension of the digital economy has gradually shifted to the right, and the shift is significant. The right tailing feature has gradually strengthened, indicating that the digital economy in Xinjiang has achieved steady growth in each dimension. The height of the main peaks in each dimension tends to widen, indicating that the internal gaps in the indices of each dimension of the digital economy are relatively prominent, and the phenomenon of multi-pole or two-pole differentiation in digital finance and digital governance is quite prominent. Thirdly, there is a significant regional imbalance in the development of the digital economy in Xinjiang. From the perspective of the northern and southern Xinjiang regions, the overall pattern is that "the northern Xinjiang takes the lead while the southern Xinjiang is catching up at an accelerated pace". The digital economy development index of various prefectures and cities has been gradually increasing, but the level of digital economy development has shown significant gradient differentiation, with hypervariability being the main source of the tiered differentiation. The digital economy index of each county has grown steadily overall, but the imbalance in the development of the digital economy among counties is rather prominent.

(2) The income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang has gradually narrowed, but there are significant regional differences. First, the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang has shown a steady narrowing trend over time, and its spatial pattern has gradually evolved from "contiguous high-value agglomeration" to "scattered distribution". Second, there are obvious regional differences in the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. From the perspective of northern and southern Xinjiang, the income gap between urban and rural areas has always shown the characteristic of "higher in the south and lower in the north", and the inter-group coefficient and intra-group coefficient are the main sources causing the income disparity between urban and rural areas in the region. The income gap between urban and rural areas in various prefectures and cities has generally shown a downward trend. The gradient differentiation of the income gap between urban and rural areas among prefectures and cities is obvious, and the inter-group coefficient is the main source causing the gradient differentiation. The income gap between urban and rural areas in counties has generally narrowed, but the income gap between urban and rural areas in counties is obvious, and the internal gap between urban and rural areas in some counties is even more prominent.

(3) By using the panel data of 88 counties (cities and districts) in Xinjiang, a fixed effect model was constructed to empirically test the impact of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. The results show that the digital economy effectively Narrows the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, and there are significant overall effects, structural effects and sequential effects. Meanwhile, the "dividend effect" of the digital economy will vary with the intensity of the digital economy, income levels, differences between the northern and southern regions, the fourteen prefectures and cities, and whether it is a border county. First, the digital economy can effectively release the "digital dividend" and significantly narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. Secondly, the impact of various dimensions of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang has structural hierarchical characteristics. Among them, the impact effect of digital infrastructure on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang is the strongest, followed by digital finance, then digital governance, and the impact effect of digital-related industries is the weakest. Thirdly, the digital economy has a significant temporal effect on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang and presents dynamic characteristics. In the early stage, the digital economy effectively released the "digital dividend", narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, and presented a dynamic trend of "rapid increase in the narrowing effect - steady increase in the narrowing effect - decline in the narrowing effect". In the later stage, it led to the "digital divide", causing the income gap between urban and rural areas to expand. Fourth, the heterogeneous impact of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang was verified based on aspects such as the intensity of the digital economy, different income levels, northern and southern Xinjiang, fourteen prefectures and cities, and whether it is a border county. Specifically, the digital economy has a stronger effect on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in the high-intensity regions of the digital economy in Xinjiang, while its impact on the low-intensity regions of the digital economy is relatively weak. The digital economy has a stronger effect on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in high-income regions of Xinjiang, while its impact on low-income regions is relatively weak. The digital economy has a stronger effect on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in southern Xinjiang than in northern Xinjiang. The digital economy has a significant impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Urumqi City, Altay Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture, Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture and Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture, while its impact on the rest of the prefectures is not significant. The digital economy has effectively released the "digital dividend" in border counties, significantly narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in these counties. However, its impact on non-border counties is still not obvious.

(4) By using the panel data of 88 counties (cities and districts) in Xinjiang, a mediating effect model was constructed to empirically test the influence mechanism of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. The results show that non-agricultural employment, technological innovation and urbanization have significant mechanism effects in the process of digital economy influencing the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, but there are regional differences in the mechanism effects. First, the digital economy Narrows the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang by promoting non-agricultural employment, driving technological innovation and advancing urbanization. Firstly, the mediating effect of non-agricultural employment is -0.0065. The digital economy promotes non-agricultural employment, thereby increasing the income level of rural residents and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. Secondly, the mediating effect of technological innovation is -0.0115. The digital economy Narrows the income gap between urban and rural areas by promoting technological innovation. Finally, the mediating effect of urbanization is -0.0069. The digital economy further Bridges the income gap between urban and rural areas by accelerating the process of urbanization construction and urban-rural integration. Second, the mechanism effects of non-agricultural employment, technological innovation and urbanization in the process of the digital economy influencing the income gap between urban and rural areas show regional heterogeneity. Firstly, the mechanism impact of non-agricultural employment shows regional heterogeneity. The mediating effect of non-agricultural employment in northern Xinjiang is stronger than that in southern Xinjiang, indicating that the digital economy has more significantly narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas in northern Xinjiang through non-agricultural employment, while the mediating effect of non-agricultural employment in southern Xinjiang has not yet been fully manifested. Secondly, the mechanism impact of technological innovation shows regional heterogeneity. The mediating effect of technological innovation in southern Xinjiang is more obvious than that in northern Xinjiang, indicating that the digital economy has more significantly narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas in southern Xinjiang through the mechanism of technological innovation. In contrast, the marginal effect of the mechanism of technological innovation in northern Xinjiang is relatively small, and the mechanism impact of technological innovation is relatively weak. Finally, the mechanism impact of urbanization shows regional heterogeneity. The mediating effect of urbanization in southern Xinjiang is relatively significant, while that in northern Xinjiang has not passed the significance test. This indicates that the digital economy, through the urbanization mechanism, has more significantly narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas in southern Xinjiang. However, the marginal development space of urbanization in northern Xinjiang is limited, and the mediating effect of urbanization is not obvious.

(5) By using the panel data of 88 counties (cities and districts) in Xinjiang, a spatial Dubin model was constructed to empirically test the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang. The results show that the digital economy in Xinjiang can not only narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas in local counties, but also significantly narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas in surrounding counties through spatial spillover effects. First, there is a significant positive spatial agglomeration characteristic of the income gap between urban and rural areas in Xinjiang, presenting an agglomeration feature of "high - high (H-H)" and "low - low (L-L)", while the positive spatial agglomeration effect of Xinjiang's digital economy is gradually weakening. Second, Xinjiang's digital economy has significantly narrowed the income gap between urban and rural areas in surrounding counties through spatial spillover effects. Furthermore, after replacing the measurement methods of the explained variable and the core explanatory variable, the test results of the spatial spillover effect remained significant and stable. Thirdly, the digital economy has demonstrated significant spatial spillover effects in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in both the northern and southern Xinjiang regions, but there is obvious spatial heterogeneity. Overall, the digital economy has demonstrated a significant spatial spillover effect on the income gap between urban and rural areas in both the northern and southern Xinjiang regions. While narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas in the local county, it also reduces the income gap between urban and rural areas in the surrounding counties. However, the spatial spillover effect of the digital economy in the southern Xinjiang region is more pronounced than that in the northern Xinjiang region.

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中图分类号:

 F32    

开放日期:

 2025-12-03    

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